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Czarni Połaniec vs Wisłoka Dębica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
5/25/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Czarni Połaniec41%
×Draw24%
Wisłoka Dębica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Połaniec
1.60
Wisłoka Dębica
1.44

Czarni Połaniec creates 11% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 104 away

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.74
Wisłoka Dębica
1.49

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.38
Wisłoka Dębica
1.46

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par
Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Wisłoka Dębica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw
66%
Czarni Połaniec or Wisłoka Dębica
76%
Draw or Wisłoka Dębica
59%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
21%
Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
80%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
47%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
22%
Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
76%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
42%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
55%
Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Wisłoka Dębica away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.46 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.49 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more
41%
level
24%
Wisłoka Dębica scores more
34%

Czarni Połaniec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Czarni Połaniec vs Wisłoka Dębica

Wisłoka Dębica beat Czarni Połaniec 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec in Połaniec.