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Wisłoka Dębica vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
FT
1 – 3
Łagów
Łagów
10/9/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica35%
×Draw26%
Łagów39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisłoka Dębica
1.27
Łagów
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 45 away

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.52
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.36
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw
61%
Wisłoka Dębica or Łagów
74%
Draw or Łagów
65%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
15%
Łagów wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
72%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
36%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
14%
Łagów 1+ goals
74%
Łagów 2+ goals
39%
Łagów 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
47%
Łagów (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Łagów attack 1.36 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more
35%
level
26%
Łagów scores more
39%

Łagów at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisłoka Dębica vs Łagów

Łagów beat Wisłoka Dębica 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Dębica.