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Wisła Sandomierz vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
FT
0 – 1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
3/20/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz30%
×Draw24%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Sandomierz
1.29
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.65

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 89 away

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.28
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.53

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.77
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw
54%
Wisła Sandomierz or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
76%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
70%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
13%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
72%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
37%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
14%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
81%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
49%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
40%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more
30%
level
24%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
46%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisła Sandomierz vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Wisła Sandomierz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz in Sandomierz.