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Wisła Sandomierz vs Podhale Nowy Targ — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
4/10/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz34%
×Draw24%
Podhale Nowy Targ42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Sandomierz
1.39
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.57

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 13% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 86 away

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.28
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.38

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.77
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.49

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw
58%
Wisła Sandomierz or Podhale Nowy Targ
76%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
66%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
15%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
75%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
40%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
16%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
79%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
46%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
45%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more
34%
level
24%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
42%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Sandomierz 0–1 Podhale Nowy Targ

Podhale Nowy Targ beat Wisła Sandomierz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz in Sandomierz.