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Wisła Sandomierz vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
10/30/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz39%
×Draw24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Sandomierz
1.58
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.28
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.77
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw
63%
Wisła Sandomierz or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
76%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
61%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
19%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
79%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
47%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
21%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
79%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
45%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
51%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.58

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more
39%
level
24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
37%

Wisła Sandomierz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wisła Sandomierz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Sandomierz 1–2 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski beat Wisła Sandomierz 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz in Sandomierz.