Wisła Puławy 4–0 Wisłoka Dębica: Result & Stats

Wisła Puławy

FT

4 – 0

Wisłoka Dębica

K. Puton 78'

E. Drozdowicz 52'

B. Bartosiak 34'

L. Kacprzycki 9'

5/5/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wisła Puławy59%

×Draw20%

Wisłoka Dębica20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła PuławyExpected goals in this matchWisłoka Dębica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.20

Wisła Puławy

2.18

Wisłoka Dębica

1.20

Wisła Puławy creates 82% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 104 away

2.90

creates per match

1.49

0.90

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Wisła Puławy

2.90

Wisłoka Dębica

1.49

allows per match

Wisła Puławy

0.90

Wisłoka Dębica

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Wisłoka Dębica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw

80%

Wisła Puławy or Wisłoka Dębica

80%

Draw or Wisłoka Dębica

41%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

37%

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

89%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

64%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

37%

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals

70%

Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals

34%

Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

75%

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Wisłoka Dębica away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.46 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 2.90 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.18

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.49 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more

59%

level

20%

Wisłoka Dębica scores more

20%

Wisła Puławy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

34'

50'

50'

52'

78'

K. Puton

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff