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Wisła Puławy vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
10/8/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 14Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wisła Puławy41%
×Draw27%
Stomil Olsztyn31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
1.31
Stomil Olsztyn
1.11

Wisła Puławy creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
1.49
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.29
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
69%
Wisła Puławy or Stomil Olsztyn
73%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
59%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
19%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
73%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
38%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
14%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
67%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
30%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
57%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
41%
level
27%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
31%

Wisła Puławy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Wisła Puławy 2–1 Stomil Olsztyn

Wisła Puławy beat Stomil Olsztyn 2-1 in II Liga - East on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.