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Wisła Puławy vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
1 – 1
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
10/10/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wisła Puławy68%
×Draw18%
Sokół Sieniawa15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
2.48
Sokół Sieniawa
1.08

Wisła Puławy creates 130% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 71 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
2.90
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
0.90
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
85%
Wisła Puławy or Sokół Sieniawa
82%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
32%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
45%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
92%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
70%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
44%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
66%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
29%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
82%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 2.90 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.48

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
68%
level
18%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
15%

Wisła Puławy at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Puławy 1–1 Sokół Sieniawa

Wisła Puławy and Sokół Sieniawa drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.