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Wisła Puławy vs Śląsk Wrocław II — II Liga - East 2019

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
5/21/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 32Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wisła Puławy41%
×Draw24%
Śląsk Wrocław II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
1.60
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
1.49
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.68

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.29
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.71

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
65%
Wisła Puławy or Śląsk Wrocław II
76%
Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II
59%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
20%
Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
80%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
47%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
22%
Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
77%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
43%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
53%
Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.71 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 1.68 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
41%
level
24%
Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
35%

Wisła Puławy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisła Puławy vs Śląsk Wrocław II

Wisła Puławy beat Śląsk Wrocław II 4-0 in II Liga - East on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.