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Wisła Puławy vs SKRA Częstochowa — II Liga - East 2019

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
4/27/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 30Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Wisła Puławy47%
×Draw25%
SKRA Częstochowa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
1.57
SKRA Częstochowa
1.17

Wisła Puławy creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 61 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
1.49
SKRA Częstochowa
1.05

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.29
SKRA Częstochowa
1.66

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
72%
Wisła Puławy or SKRA Częstochowa
75%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
53%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
24%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
79%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
46%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
21%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
69%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
33%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
62%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
47%
level
25%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
28%

Wisła Puławy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisła Puławy vs SKRA Częstochowa

Wisła Puławy beat SKRA Częstochowa 1-0 in II Liga - East on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.