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Wisła Puławy vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
2 – 1
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
M. Pielach 52'
D. Cheba 22'
A. Maj 57'
5/19/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 36Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wisła Puławy66%
×Draw18%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
2.40
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.10

Wisła Puławy creates 118% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 70 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
2.90
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
0.90
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
84%
Wisła Puławy or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
82%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
34%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
43%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
91%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
69%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
42%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
67%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
30%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
80%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 2.90 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.40

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
66%
level
18%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
16%

Wisła Puławy at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
D. Cheba
52'
M. Pielach
57'
A. Maj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Puławy 2–1 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Wisła Puławy beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 19, 2021.

Goals: D. Cheba (22'), M. Pielach (52'), A. Maj (57').

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.