Wisła Puławy 7–0 Hetman Zamosc: Result & Stats

Wisła Puławy

FT

7 – 0

Hetman Zamosc

A. Paluchowski 90', 19'

L. Kacprzycki 66'

E. Furtado 29'

T. Zajac 26', 22'

B. Bartosiak 8'

3/20/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wisła Puławy85%

×Draw9%

Hetman Zamosc5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła PuławyExpected goals in this matchHetman Zamosc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.60

0.85

Wisła Puławy

3.60

Hetman Zamosc

0.85

Wisła Puławy creates 324% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

2.90

creates per match

0.80

0.90

allows per match

4.30

creates per match

Wisła Puławy

2.90

Hetman Zamosc

0.80

allows per match

Wisła Puławy

0.90

Hetman Zamosc

4.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Hetman Zamosc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Hetman Zamosc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw

95%

Wisła Puławy or Hetman Zamosc

91%

Draw or Hetman Zamosc

15%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

69%

Hetman Zamosc wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

97%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

86%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

67%

Hetman Zamosc 1+ goals

57%

Hetman Zamosc 2+ goals

21%

Hetman Zamosc 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

94%

Hetman Zamosc (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Hetman Zamosc away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 2.90 + Hetman Zamosc defence 4.30 → ÷2 → 3.60

Hetman Zamosc attack 0.80 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more

85%

level

9%

Hetman Zamosc scores more

5%

Wisła Puławy at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

19'

22'

26'

29'

E. Furtado

66'

L. Kacprzycki

90'

A. Paluchowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff