Wisła Puławy 1–4 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Wisła Puławy

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Chojniczanka Chojnice

5/10/2025

II Liga - East · Round 30Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wisła Puławy37%

×Draw26%

Chojniczanka Chojnice37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła PuławyExpected goals in this matchChojniczanka Chojnice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.37

Wisła Puławy

1.36

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 87 away

1.49

creates per match

1.45

1.29

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Wisła Puławy

1.49

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.45

allows per match

Wisła Puławy

1.29

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw

63%

Wisła Puławy or Chojniczanka Chojnice

74%

Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice

63%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

17%

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

74%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

39%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

16%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

75%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

40%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

50%

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more

37%

level

26%

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

37%

Wisła Puławy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff