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Wisła Puławy vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
2 – 1
Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
8/22/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wisła Puławy57%
×Draw21%
Chełmianka Chełm23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
2.16
Chełmianka Chełm
1.31

Wisła Puławy creates 65% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 104 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
2.90
Chełmianka Chełm
1.73

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
0.90
Chełmianka Chełm
1.42

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
77%
Wisła Puławy or Chełmianka Chełm
79%
Draw or Chełmianka Chełm
43%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
34%
Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
88%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
63%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
36%
Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
73%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
38%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
71%
Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 2.90 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.16

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
57%
level
21%
Chełmianka Chełm scores more
23%

Wisła Puławy at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Puławy 2–1 Chełmianka Chełm

Wisła Puławy beat Chełmianka Chełm 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.