Wisła Kraków U19 3–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

Wisła Kraków U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

4/28/2024

Central Youth League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wisła Kraków U1962%

×Draw18%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła Kraków U19Expected goals in this matchSandecja Nowy Sącz U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.45

Wisła Kraków U19

2.60

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

1.45

Wisła Kraków U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

1.94

creates per match

1.13

1.77

allows per match

3.27

creates per match

Wisła Kraków U19

1.94

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

1.13

allows per match

Wisła Kraków U19

1.77

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

3.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Kraków U19+0.00on par

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Kraków U19 ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Wisła Kraków U19 or draw

80%

Wisła Kraków U19 or Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

82%

Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

38%

Winning margin

Wisła Kraków U19 wins by 2+

41%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wisła Kraków U19 1+ goals

92%

Wisła Kraków U19 2+ goals

73%

Wisła Kraków U19 3+ goals

47%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 1+ goals

77%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2+ goals

42%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wisła Kraków U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Kraków U19 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Kraków U19 attack 1.94 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.60

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 attack 1.13 + Wisła Kraków U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wisła Kraków U19 scores more

62%

level

18%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 scores more

20%

Wisła Kraków U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wisła Kraków U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff