Wisła Kraków U19 2–3 Jagiellonia U19

Wisła Kraków U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Jagiellonia U19

9/13/2025

Central Youth League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Kraków U1944%

×Draw22%

Jagiellonia U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła Kraków U19Expected goals in this matchJagiellonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.71

Wisła Kraków U19

1.97

Jagiellonia U19

1.71

Wisła Kraków U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

1.94

creates per match

1.64

1.77

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Wisła Kraków U19

1.94

Jagiellonia U19

1.64

allows per match

Wisła Kraków U19

1.77

Jagiellonia U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Kraków U19+0.00on par

Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Kraków U19 ↓

Jagiellonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Wisła Kraków U19 or draw

66%

Wisła Kraków U19 or Jagiellonia U19

78%

Draw or Jagiellonia U19

56%

Winning margin

Wisła Kraków U19 wins by 2+

25%

Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wisła Kraków U19 1+ goals

86%

Wisła Kraków U19 2+ goals

58%

Wisła Kraków U19 3+ goals

31%

Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals

82%

Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals

51%

Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Wisła Kraków U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Kraków U19 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Jagiellonia U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Kraków U19 attack 1.94 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Jagiellonia U19 attack 1.64 + Wisła Kraków U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wisła Kraków U19 scores more

44%

level

22%

Jagiellonia U19 scores more

34%

Wisła Kraków U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wisła Kraków U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff