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Wisła Kraków U19 vs Górnik Zabrze U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Wisła Kraków U19
Wisła Kraków U19
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Górnik Zabrze U19
Górnik Zabrze U19
4/1/2026Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Kraków U1940%
×Draw22%
Górnik Zabrze U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Kraków U19
1.84
Górnik Zabrze U19
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

creates per match

Wisła Kraków U19
1.94
Górnik Zabrze U19
1.81

allows per match

Wisła Kraków U19
1.77
Górnik Zabrze U19
1.75

finishing

Wisła Kraków U19+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Kraków U19 ↓

Górnik Zabrze U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Wisła Kraków U19 or draw
62%
Wisła Kraków U19 or Górnik Zabrze U19
78%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze U19
60%

Winning margin

Wisła Kraków U19 wins by 2+
21%
Górnik Zabrze U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Wisła Kraków U19 1+ goals
84%
Wisła Kraków U19 2+ goals
55%
Wisła Kraków U19 3+ goals
28%
Górnik Zabrze U19 1+ goals
83%
Górnik Zabrze U19 2+ goals
53%
Górnik Zabrze U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Wisła Kraków U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Górnik Zabrze U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Kraków U19 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Górnik Zabrze U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Kraków U19 attack 1.94 + Górnik Zabrze U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Górnik Zabrze U19 attack 1.81 + Wisła Kraków U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wisła Kraków U19 scores more
40%
level
22%
Górnik Zabrze U19 scores more
38%

Wisła Kraków U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wisła Kraków U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisła Kraków U19 vs Górnik Zabrze U19

Wisła Kraków U19 beat Górnik Zabrze U19 5-1 in Central Youth League on April 1, 2026.