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Wisła Kraków U18 vs Miedź Legnica U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Wisła Kraków U18
Wisła Kraków U18
FT
5 – 0
Miedź Legnica U18
Miedź Legnica U18
11/5/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Wisła Kraków U1879%
×Draw13%
Miedź Legnica U188%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Kraków U18
3.02
Miedź Legnica U18
0.89

Wisła Kraków U18 creates 239% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

creates per match

Wisła Kraków U18
2.19
Miedź Legnica U18
0.43

allows per match

Wisła Kraków U18
1.35
Miedź Legnica U18
3.86

finishing

Wisła Kraków U18+0.00on par
Miedź Legnica U18+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Kraków U18 ↓

Miedź Legnica U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Wisła Kraków U18 or draw
92%
Wisła Kraków U18 or Miedź Legnica U18
87%
Draw or Miedź Legnica U18
21%

Winning margin

Wisła Kraków U18 wins by 2+
60%
Miedź Legnica U18 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Wisła Kraków U18 1+ goals
95%
Wisła Kraków U18 2+ goals
80%
Wisła Kraków U18 3+ goals
57%
Miedź Legnica U18 1+ goals
59%
Miedź Legnica U18 2+ goals
22%
Miedź Legnica U18 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wisła Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
91%
Miedź Legnica U18 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Kraków U18 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

Miedź Legnica U18 away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Kraków U18 attack 2.19 + Miedź Legnica U18 defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 3.02

Miedź Legnica U18 attack 0.43 + Wisła Kraków U18 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Wisła Kraków U18 scores more
79%
level
13%
Miedź Legnica U18 scores more
8%

Wisła Kraków U18 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Wisła Kraków U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisła Kraków U18 vs Miedź Legnica U18

Wisła Kraków U18 beat Miedź Legnica U18 5-0 in Central Youth League on November 5, 2022.