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Winterthur II vs Uzwil — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Winterthur II
Winterthur II
FT
5 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Uzwil
Uzwil
10/6/20241. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Winterthur II57%
×Draw20%
Uzwil23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Winterthur II
2.29
Uzwil
1.40

Winterthur II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 58 away

creates per match

Winterthur II
2.16
Uzwil
1.36

allows per match

Winterthur II
1.44
Uzwil
2.43

finishing

Winterthur II+0.00on par
Uzwil+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Winterthur II ↓

Uzwil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Winterthur II or draw
77%
Winterthur II or Uzwil
80%
Draw or Uzwil
43%

Winning margin

Winterthur II wins by 2+
36%
Uzwil wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Winterthur II 1+ goals
90%
Winterthur II 2+ goals
66%
Winterthur II 3+ goals
40%
Uzwil 1+ goals
75%
Uzwil 2+ goals
41%
Uzwil 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Winterthur II (draw refunded)
71%
Uzwil (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Winterthur II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.44 · 85 matches

Uzwil away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.43 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Winterthur II attack 2.16 + Uzwil defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.29

Uzwil attack 1.36 + Winterthur II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Winterthur II scores more
57%
level
20%
Uzwil scores more
23%

Winterthur II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Winterthur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Winterthur II 5–5 Uzwil

Winterthur II and Uzwil drew 5-5 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Schützenwiese in Winterthur.