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Winterthur II vs Linth — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Winterthur II
Winterthur II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Linth
Linth
4/1/20231. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Schützenwiese - Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Winterthur II52%
×Draw21%
Linth27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Winterthur II
2.08
Linth
1.46

Winterthur II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 74 away

creates per match

Winterthur II
2.16
Linth
1.47

allows per match

Winterthur II
1.44
Linth
2.00

finishing

Winterthur II+0.00on par
Linth+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Winterthur II ↓

Linth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Winterthur II or draw
73%
Winterthur II or Linth
79%
Draw or Linth
48%

Winning margin

Winterthur II wins by 2+
30%
Linth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Winterthur II 1+ goals
87%
Winterthur II 2+ goals
61%
Winterthur II 3+ goals
34%
Linth 1+ goals
77%
Linth 2+ goals
43%
Linth 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Winterthur II (draw refunded)
66%
Linth (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Winterthur II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.44 · 85 matches

Linth away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Winterthur II attack 2.16 + Linth defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Linth attack 1.47 + Winterthur II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Winterthur II scores more
52%
level
21%
Linth scores more
27%

Winterthur II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Winterthur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Winterthur II vs Linth

Winterthur II beat Linth 4-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Schützenwiese - Platz 3 in Winterthur.