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Winterthur II vs Kosova — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Winterthur II
Winterthur II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kosova
Kosova
9/21/20241. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Schützenwiese - Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Winterthur II51%
×Draw22%
Kosova27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Winterthur II
1.92
Kosova
1.33

Winterthur II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 73 away

creates per match

Winterthur II
2.16
Kosova
1.23

allows per match

Winterthur II
1.44
Kosova
1.67

finishing

Winterthur II+0.00on par
Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Winterthur II ↓

Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Winterthur II or draw
73%
Winterthur II or Kosova
78%
Draw or Kosova
49%

Winning margin

Winterthur II wins by 2+
29%
Kosova wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Winterthur II 1+ goals
85%
Winterthur II 2+ goals
57%
Winterthur II 3+ goals
30%
Kosova 1+ goals
74%
Kosova 2+ goals
38%
Kosova 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Winterthur II (draw refunded)
66%
Kosova (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Winterthur II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.44 · 85 matches

Kosova away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Winterthur II attack 2.16 + Kosova defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kosova attack 1.23 + Winterthur II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Winterthur II scores more
51%
level
22%
Kosova scores more
27%

Winterthur II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Winterthur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Winterthur II 1–1 Kosova

Winterthur II and Kosova drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Schützenwiese - Platz 3 in Winterthur.