Winterthur II 3–0 Grasshopper II: Result & Stats

Winterthur II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Grasshopper II

8/20/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Winterthur II49%

×Draw22%

Grasshopper II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Winterthur IIExpected goals in this matchGrasshopper II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.50

Winterthur II

2.00

Grasshopper II

1.50

Winterthur II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 30 away

2.16

creates per match

1.57

1.44

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Winterthur II

2.16

Grasshopper II

1.57

allows per match

Winterthur II

1.44

Grasshopper II

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Winterthur II+0.00on par

Grasshopper II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Winterthur II ↓

Grasshopper II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Winterthur II or draw

71%

Winterthur II or Grasshopper II

78%

Draw or Grasshopper II

51%

Winning margin

Winterthur II wins by 2+

28%

Grasshopper II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Winterthur II 1+ goals

86%

Winterthur II 2+ goals

59%

Winterthur II 3+ goals

32%

Grasshopper II 1+ goals

78%

Grasshopper II 2+ goals

44%

Grasshopper II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Winterthur II (draw refunded)

63%

Grasshopper II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Winterthur II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.44 · 85 matches

Grasshopper II away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Winterthur II attack 2.16 + Grasshopper II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.00

Grasshopper II attack 1.57 + Winterthur II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Winterthur II scores more

49%

level

22%

Grasshopper II scores more

29%

Winterthur II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Winterthur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff