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Winterthur II vs Freienbach — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Winterthur II
Winterthur II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Freienbach
Freienbach
3/10/20241. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Schützenwiese - Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Winterthur II53%
×Draw21%
Freienbach25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Winterthur II
2.04
Freienbach
1.35

Winterthur II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 73 away

creates per match

Winterthur II
2.16
Freienbach
1.27

allows per match

Winterthur II
1.44
Freienbach
1.93

finishing

Winterthur II+0.00on par
Freienbach+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Winterthur II ↓

Freienbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Winterthur II or draw
75%
Winterthur II or Freienbach
79%
Draw or Freienbach
47%

Winning margin

Winterthur II wins by 2+
31%
Freienbach wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Winterthur II 1+ goals
87%
Winterthur II 2+ goals
60%
Winterthur II 3+ goals
33%
Freienbach 1+ goals
74%
Freienbach 2+ goals
39%
Freienbach 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Winterthur II (draw refunded)
68%
Freienbach (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Winterthur II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.44 · 85 matches

Freienbach away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Winterthur II attack 2.16 + Freienbach defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.04

Freienbach attack 1.27 + Winterthur II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Winterthur II scores more
53%
level
21%
Freienbach scores more
25%

Winterthur II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Winterthur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Winterthur II vs Freienbach

Winterthur II beat Freienbach 5-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Schützenwiese - Platz 3 in Winterthur.