Institute 1–0 Ballyclare Comrades: Result & Stats

Institute

FT

1 – 0

Ballyclare Comrades

2/24/2018

Championship · Promotion Round - 3Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Institute56%

×Draw21%

Ballyclare Comrades23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InstituteExpected goals in this matchBallyclare Comrades

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.30

Institute

2.13

Ballyclare Comrades

1.30

Institute creates 64% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

2.25

creates per match

2.10

0.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Institute

2.25

Ballyclare Comrades

2.10

allows per match

Institute

0.50

Ballyclare Comrades

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Institute+0.00on par

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Institute ↓

Ballyclare Comrades →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Institute or draw

77%

Institute or Ballyclare Comrades

79%

Draw or Ballyclare Comrades

44%

Winning margin

Institute wins by 2+

34%

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Institute 1+ goals

88%

Institute 2+ goals

63%

Institute 3+ goals

35%

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals

73%

Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals

37%

Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Institute (draw refunded)

71%

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Institute at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Ballyclare Comrades away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Institute attack 2.25 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ballyclare Comrades attack 2.10 + Institute defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Institute scores more

56%

level

21%

Ballyclare Comrades scores more

23%

Institute at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Institute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff