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Ballyclare Comrades vs Institute — League #407 2026

Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Institute
Institute
K. Hawthorne 33'
C. Gilmour 6'
P. Lynch 80'
B. Diau 3'
1/18/2025League #407League #407 · Round 25Dixon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ballyclare Comrades25%
×Draw20%
Institute55%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballyclare Comrades
1.50
Institute
2.28

Institute creates 52% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ballyclare Comrades
1.44
Institute
2.33

allows per match

Ballyclare Comrades
2.22
Institute
1.56

finishing

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par
Institute+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballyclare Comrades ↓

Institute →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ballyclare Comrades or draw
45%
Ballyclare Comrades or Institute
80%
Draw or Institute
75%

Winning margin

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
11%
Institute wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
78%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
44%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
19%
Institute 1+ goals
90%
Institute 2+ goals
66%
Institute 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
31%
Institute (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballyclare Comrades at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Institute away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.44 + Institute defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Institute attack 2.33 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ballyclare Comrades scores more
25%
level
20%
Institute scores more
55%

Institute at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Institute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
B. Diau
6'
C. Gilmour
33'
K. Hawthorne
80'
P. Lynch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Ballyclare Comrades 2–2 Institute

Ballyclare Comrades and Institute drew 2-2 in League #407 on January 18, 2025.

Goals: B. Diau (3'), C. Gilmour (6'), K. Hawthorne (33'), P. Lynch (80').

The match was played at Dixon Park in Ballyclare.