Ballinamallard United 2–0 Dundela: Result & Stats

Ballinamallard United

FT

2 – 0

Dundela

4/6/2019

Championship · Promotion Round - 7Ferney Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ballinamallard United52%

×Draw26%

Dundela21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ballinamallard UnitedExpected goals in this matchDundela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.85

Ballinamallard United

1.50

Dundela

0.85

Ballinamallard United creates 76% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

0.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ballinamallard United

1.00

Dundela

1.38

allows per match

Ballinamallard United

0.33

Dundela

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballinamallard United ↓

Dundela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ballinamallard United or draw

79%

Ballinamallard United or Dundela

74%

Draw or Dundela

48%

Winning margin

Ballinamallard United wins by 2+

27%

Dundela wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ballinamallard United 1+ goals

78%

Ballinamallard United 2+ goals

44%

Ballinamallard United 3+ goals

19%

Dundela 1+ goals

57%

Dundela 2+ goals

21%

Dundela 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)

71%

Dundela (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballinamallard United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Dundela away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballinamallard United attack 1.00 + Dundela defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dundela attack 1.38 + Ballinamallard United defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ballinamallard United scores more

52%

level

26%

Dundela scores more

21%

Ballinamallard United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ballinamallard United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff