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Ballinamallard United vs Dundela — League #407 2026

Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dundela
Dundela
D. Byrne 76'
A. Holder 63'
A. Arkinson 42'
D. McMaster 38'
2/8/2025League #407League #407 · Round 27Ferney Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ballinamallard United57%
×Draw21%
Dundela21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballinamallard United
2.04
Dundela
1.16

Ballinamallard United creates 76% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ballinamallard United
1.81
Dundela
1.26

allows per match

Ballinamallard United
1.06
Dundela
2.26

finishing

Ballinamallard United+0.00on par
Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballinamallard United ↓

Dundela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ballinamallard United or draw
79%
Ballinamallard United or Dundela
79%
Draw or Dundela
43%

Winning margin

Ballinamallard United wins by 2+
34%
Dundela wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ballinamallard United 1+ goals
87%
Ballinamallard United 2+ goals
60%
Ballinamallard United 3+ goals
33%
Dundela 1+ goals
69%
Dundela 2+ goals
32%
Dundela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)
73%
Dundela (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballinamallard United at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Dundela away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballinamallard United attack 1.81 + Dundela defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dundela attack 1.26 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ballinamallard United scores more
57%
level
21%
Dundela scores more
21%

Ballinamallard United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ballinamallard United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
D. McMaster
42'
A. Arkinson
63'
A. Holder
76'
D. Byrne

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Ballinamallard United 3–1 Dundela

Ballinamallard United beat Dundela 3-1 in League #407 on February 8, 2025.

Goals: D. McMaster (38'), A. Arkinson (42'), A. Holder (63'), D. Byrne (76').

The match was played at Ferney Park in Ballinamallard.