Carrick Rangers 2–0 Ballyclare Comrades

Carrick Rangers

FT

2 – 0

Ballyclare Comrades

9/22/2018

League #407 · Round 7Belfast Loughshore Hotel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Carrick Rangers46%

×Draw22%

Ballyclare Comrades33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carrick RangersExpected goals in this matchBallyclare Comrades

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.66

Carrick Rangers

2.00

Ballyclare Comrades

1.66

Carrick Rangers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 19 away

2.17

creates per match

1.74

1.58

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Carrick Rangers

2.17

Ballyclare Comrades

1.74

allows per match

Carrick Rangers

1.58

Ballyclare Comrades

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

Ballyclare Comrades →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw

67%

Carrick Rangers or Ballyclare Comrades

78%

Draw or Ballyclare Comrades

54%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

26%

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

86%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

59%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

32%

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals

81%

Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals

49%

Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

59%

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Ballyclare Comrades away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 2.17 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.74 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more

46%

level

22%

Ballyclare Comrades scores more

33%

Carrick Rangers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff