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Ballyclare Comrades vs Carrick Rangers — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
S. McIlveen 24' (pen)
J. Dunne 90+3' (pen)
L. Hassin 78'
J. Ferrin 34'
9/1/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Dixon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ballyclare Comrades9%
×Draw16%
Carrick Rangers75%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballyclare Comrades
0.71
Carrick Rangers
2.42

Carrick Rangers creates 241% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ballyclare Comrades
0.43
Carrick Rangers
2.40

allows per match

Ballyclare Comrades
2.43
Carrick Rangers
1.00

finishing

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par
Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballyclare Comrades ↓

Carrick Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–213%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ballyclare Comrades or draw
25%
Ballyclare Comrades or Carrick Rangers
84%
Draw or Carrick Rangers
91%

Winning margin

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
2%
Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
51%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
16%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
4%
Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
91%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
69%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
11%
Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballyclare Comrades at home — creates 0.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballyclare Comrades attack 0.43 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Carrick Rangers attack 2.40 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ballyclare Comrades scores more
9%
level
16%
Carrick Rangers scores more
75%

Carrick Rangers at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
S. McIlveenPenalty
34'
J. Ferrin
78'
L. Hassin
90+3'
J. DunnePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ballyclare Comrades vs Carrick Rangers

Carrick Rangers beat Ballyclare Comrades 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on September 1, 2020.

Goals: S. McIlveen (24' pen), J. Ferrin (34'), L. Hassin (78'), J. Dunne (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Dixon Park in Ballyclare.