Loughgall 3–2 PSNI: Result & Stats | League #407

Loughgall

FT

3 – 2

PSNI

9/7/2018

League #407 · Round 5Lakeview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Loughgall47%

×Draw21%

PSNI32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoughgallExpected goals in this matchPSNI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.69

Loughgall

2.08

PSNI

1.69

Loughgall creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.73

creates per match

1.92

1.45

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Loughgall

1.73

PSNI

1.92

allows per match

Loughgall

1.45

PSNI

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loughgall+0.00on par

PSNI+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughgall ↓

PSNI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Loughgall or draw

68%

Loughgall or PSNI

79%

Draw or PSNI

53%

Winning margin

Loughgall wins by 2+

27%

PSNI wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Loughgall 1+ goals

87%

Loughgall 2+ goals

61%

Loughgall 3+ goals

34%

PSNI 1+ goals

82%

PSNI 2+ goals

50%

PSNI 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Loughgall (draw refunded)

60%

PSNI (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughgall at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

PSNI away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughgall attack 1.73 + PSNI defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.08

PSNI attack 1.92 + Loughgall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Loughgall scores more

47%

level

21%

PSNI scores more

32%

Loughgall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Loughgall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff