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Wincrange vs Progres Niederkorn — Cup 2020

Wincrange
Wincrange
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
10/2/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Henri Lamborelle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wincrange2%
×Draw6%
Progres Niederkorn92%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wincrange
0.50
Progres Niederkorn
3.73

Progres Niederkorn creates 646% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wincrange
0.00
Progres Niederkorn
4.13

allows per match

Wincrange
3.33
Progres Niederkorn
1.00

finishing

Wincrange+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wincrange ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–211%
0–314%
0–413%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (14%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Wincrange or draw
8%
Wincrange or Progres Niederkorn
94%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
98%

Winning margin

Wincrange wins by 2+
0%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
78%

Team goals

Wincrange 1+ goals
39%
Wincrange 2+ goals
9%
Wincrange 3+ goals
1%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
97%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
88%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
69%

Draw no bet

Wincrange (draw refunded)
2%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wincrange at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 4.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wincrange attack 0.00 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Progres Niederkorn attack 4.13 + Wincrange defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Wincrange scores more
2%
level
6%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
92%

Progres Niederkorn at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wincrange vs Progres Niederkorn

Progres Niederkorn beat Wincrange 6-0 in Cup on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Henri Lamborelle in Wincrange.