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Wincrange vs Bettembourg — Cup 2020

Wincrange
Wincrange
FT
0 – 2
Bettembourg
Bettembourg
10/3/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Henri Lamborelle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wincrange5%
×Draw10%
Bettembourg84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wincrange
0.69
Bettembourg
3.17

Bettembourg creates 359% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Wincrange
0.00
Bettembourg
3.00

allows per match

Wincrange
3.33
Bettembourg
1.38

finishing

Wincrange+0.00on par
Bettembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wincrange ↓

Bettembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–312%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Wincrange or draw
16%
Wincrange or Bettembourg
90%
Draw or Bettembourg
95%

Winning margin

Wincrange wins by 2+
1%
Bettembourg wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Wincrange 1+ goals
50%
Wincrange 2+ goals
15%
Wincrange 3+ goals
3%
Bettembourg 1+ goals
96%
Bettembourg 2+ goals
82%
Bettembourg 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Wincrange (draw refunded)
6%
Bettembourg (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wincrange at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Bettembourg away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wincrange attack 0.00 + Bettembourg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Bettembourg attack 3.00 + Wincrange defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Wincrange scores more
5%
level
10%
Bettembourg scores more
84%

Bettembourg at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Bettembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wincrange vs Bettembourg

Bettembourg beat Wincrange 2-0 in Cup on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Henri Lamborelle in Wincrange.