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Winchester City vs Frome Town — League #56 2026

Winchester City
Winchester City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Frome Town
Frome Town
1/10/2026League #56League #56 · Southern South - 26Charters Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Winchester City24%
×Draw20%
Frome Town56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Winchester City
1.48
Frome Town
2.34

Frome Town creates 58% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Winchester City
1.67
Frome Town
2.35

allows per match

Winchester City
2.33
Frome Town
1.29

finishing

Winchester City+0.00on par
Frome Town+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Winchester City ↓

Frome Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Winchester City or draw
44%
Winchester City or Frome Town
80%
Draw or Frome Town
76%

Winning margin

Winchester City wins by 2+
11%
Frome Town wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Winchester City 1+ goals
77%
Winchester City 2+ goals
43%
Winchester City 3+ goals
19%
Frome Town 1+ goals
90%
Frome Town 2+ goals
67%
Frome Town 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Winchester City (draw refunded)
30%
Frome Town (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Winchester City at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Frome Town away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Winchester City attack 1.67 + Frome Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Frome Town attack 2.35 + Winchester City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Winchester City scores more
24%
level
20%
Frome Town scores more
56%

Frome Town at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Frome Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #56: Winchester City 1–3 Frome Town

Frome Town beat Winchester City 3-1 in League #56 on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at Charters Community Stadium in Winchester, Hampshire.