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Wimborne Town vs Farnham Town — League #60 2026

Wimborne Town
Wimborne Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Farnham Town
Farnham Town
4/3/2026League #60League #60

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wimborne Town22%
×Draw32%
Farnham Town46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wimborne Town
0.67
Farnham Town
1.10

Farnham Town creates 64% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wimborne Town
0.33
Farnham Town
1.54

allows per match

Wimborne Town
0.67
Farnham Town
1.00

finishing

Wimborne Town+0.00on par
Farnham Town+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wimborne Town ↓

Farnham Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–119%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Wimborne Town or draw
54%
Wimborne Town or Farnham Town
68%
Draw or Farnham Town
78%

Winning margin

Wimborne Town wins by 2+
6%
Farnham Town wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wimborne Town 1+ goals
49%
Wimborne Town 2+ goals
15%
Wimborne Town 3+ goals
3%
Farnham Town 1+ goals
67%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
30%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wimborne Town (draw refunded)
33%
Farnham Town (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wimborne Town at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Farnham Town away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wimborne Town attack 0.33 + Farnham Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Farnham Town attack 1.54 + Wimborne Town defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wimborne Town scores more
22%
level
32%
Farnham Town scores more
46%

Farnham Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Farnham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wimborne Town vs Farnham Town

Farnham Town beat Wimborne Town 1-0 in League #60 on April 3, 2026.