Wiltz 1–1 Victoria Rosport: Result & Stats

Wiltz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Victoria Rosport

11/24/2024

National Division · Round 13Stade am Petz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Wiltz44%

×Draw23%

Victoria Rosport33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiltzExpected goals in this matchVictoria Rosport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.47

Wiltz

1.75

Victoria Rosport

1.47

Wiltz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 112 away

1.56

creates per match

1.30

1.64

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Wiltz

1.56

Victoria Rosport

1.30

allows per match

Wiltz

1.64

Victoria Rosport

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiltz+0.00on par

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiltz ↓

Victoria Rosport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Wiltz or draw

67%

Wiltz or Victoria Rosport

77%

Draw or Victoria Rosport

56%

Winning margin

Wiltz wins by 2+

23%

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wiltz 1+ goals

83%

Wiltz 2+ goals

52%

Wiltz 3+ goals

25%

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals

77%

Victoria Rosport 2+ goals

43%

Victoria Rosport 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wiltz (draw refunded)

58%

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiltz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 75 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiltz attack 1.56 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

Victoria Rosport attack 1.30 + Wiltz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wiltz scores more

44%

level

23%

Victoria Rosport scores more

33%

Wiltz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wiltz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff