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Wiltz vs Progres Niederkorn — Cup 2020

Wiltz
Wiltzadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
V. Gorny 90+1'
N. Saidi 84'
B. Romeyns 40'
V. Peugnet 79'
K. Corral 31'
4/23/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade am Petz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wiltz33%
×Draw19%
Progres Niederkorn48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiltz
2.13
Progres Niederkorn
2.56

Progres Niederkorn creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wiltz
3.25
Progres Niederkorn
4.13

allows per match

Wiltz
1.00
Progres Niederkorn
1.00

finishing

Wiltz+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiltz ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Wiltz or draw
52%
Wiltz or Progres Niederkorn
81%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
67%

Winning margin

Wiltz wins by 2+
18%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Wiltz 1+ goals
88%
Wiltz 2+ goals
63%
Wiltz 3+ goals
35%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
92%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
72%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Wiltz (draw refunded)
41%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiltz at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 4.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiltz attack 3.25 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Progres Niederkorn attack 4.13 + Wiltz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wiltz scores more
33%
level
19%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
48%

Progres Niederkorn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
K. Corral
40'
B. Romeyns
79'
V. Peugnet
84'
N. Saidi
90+1'
V. Gorny

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Wiltz 3–2 Progres Niederkorn

Wiltz beat Progres Niederkorn 3-2 in Cup on April 23, 2025.

Goals: K. Corral (31'), B. Romeyns (40'), V. Peugnet (79'), N. Saidi (84'), V. Gorny (90+1').

The match was played at Stade am Petz in Weidingen.