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Willem II vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
1/19/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 22Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Willem II54%
×Draw22%
Jong Ajax24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.94
Jong Ajax
1.21

Willem II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 148 away

creates per match

Willem II
1.85
Jong Ajax
1.48

allows per match

Willem II
0.95
Jong Ajax
2.03

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
76%
Willem II or Jong Ajax
78%
Draw or Jong Ajax
46%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
31%
Jong Ajax wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
86%
Willem II 2+ goals
58%
Willem II 3+ goals
30%
Jong Ajax 1+ goals
70%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
34%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
70%
Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.03 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.85 + Jong Ajax defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.94

Jong Ajax attack 1.48 + Willem II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Willem II scores more
54%
level
22%
Jong Ajax scores more
24%

Willem II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Willem II vs Jong Ajax

Willem II and Jong Ajax drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.