Willem II 1–1 FC OSS: Result & Stats

Willem II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC OSS

11/7/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 15Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Willem II57%

×Draw24%

FC OSS20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Willem IIExpected goals in this matchFC OSS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.93

Willem II

1.75

FC OSS

0.93

Willem II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 148 away

1.85

creates per match

0.90

0.95

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Willem II

1.85

FC OSS

0.90

allows per match

Willem II

0.95

FC OSS

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par

FC OSS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

FC OSS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Willem II or draw

80%

Willem II or FC OSS

76%

Draw or FC OSS

43%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+

32%

FC OSS wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals

83%

Willem II 2+ goals

52%

Willem II 3+ goals

25%

FC OSS 1+ goals

61%

FC OSS 2+ goals

24%

FC OSS 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)

74%

FC OSS (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

FC OSS away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.85 + FC OSS defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC OSS attack 0.90 + Willem II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Willem II scores more

57%

level

24%

FC OSS scores more

20%

Willem II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff