Willem II 1–0 Dordrecht: Result & Stats

Willem II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dordrecht

E. Kabangu 77'

2/10/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 24Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Willem II52%

×Draw21%

Dordrecht27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Willem IIExpected goals in this matchDordrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.46

Willem II

2.10

Dordrecht

1.46

Willem II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.25

creates per match

1.50

1.41

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Willem II

2.25

Dordrecht

1.50

allows per match

Willem II

1.41

Dordrecht

1.95

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Willem II-0.58scores less

Dordrecht-0.50scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Dordrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Willem II or draw

73%

Willem II or Dordrecht

79%

Draw or Dordrecht

48%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+

31%

Dordrecht wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals

88%

Willem II 2+ goals

62%

Willem II 3+ goals

35%

Dordrecht 1+ goals

77%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

43%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)

66%

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.41 · 6 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.95 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 2.25 + Dordrecht defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.10

Dordrecht attack 1.50 + Willem II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Willem II scores more

52%

level

21%

Dordrecht scores more

27%

Willem II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

R. Meerveld

Willem II · M

8.5

Match Events

21'

21'

42'

45'

50'

59'

59'

S. Longo← P. Doesburg

61'

Şahverdi Çetin

63'

J. Bokila← J. Hornkamp

63'

D. Mathieu← M. Svensson

67'

Wessel Dammers

72'

M. Savastano← Elso Brito

72'

V. Schippers← A. Aberkane

77'

E. Kabangu↳ L. Owusu

78'

M. de Leeuw← E. Kabangu

81'

F. Heerkens← R. Meerveld

82'

B. Camara← J. van der Avert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WillemDordrecht

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots2

13Corners0

7Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots2

5On Target0

10Off Target2

5Blocked0

9Inside Box1

11Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

498Total Passes384

397Accurate Passes258

80%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1