Dordrecht 1–2 Willem II: Result & Stats

Dordrecht

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Willem II

N. Venema 78'

C. Twigt 83'

T. Verheydt 43' (pen)

4/24/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 38M-Scores Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Dordrecht45%

×Draw24%

Willem II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DordrechtExpected goals in this matchWillem II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.36

Dordrecht

1.69

Willem II

1.36

Dordrecht creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.64

creates per match

1.74

0.99

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Dordrecht

1.64

Willem II

1.74

allows per match

Dordrecht

0.99

Willem II

1.74

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Dordrecht-0.35scores less

Willem II-0.07on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Willem II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw

69%

Dordrecht or Willem II

76%

Draw or Willem II

55%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+

24%

Willem II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals

82%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

50%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

24%

Willem II 1+ goals

74%

Willem II 2+ goals

39%

Willem II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

59%

Willem II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 7 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.74 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 1.64 + Willem II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Willem II attack 1.74 + Dordrecht defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dordrecht scores more

45%

level

24%

Willem II scores more

31%

Dordrecht at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Twigt

Willem II · M

8.3

Match Events

25'

A. Culum← D. Haen

32'

Nicolás Rossi

43'

T. VerheydtPenalty

46'

S. Bae← L. Sunderland

46'

S. Baartmans← T. Verheydt

65'

M. Afaker← N. Rossi

65'

L. Codutti← Mica Pinto

69'

Jan Plug

73'

Marouane Afaker

78'

N. Venema↳ J. van Aken

82'

S. Carrillo← D. van Vianen

83'

C. Twigt↳ A. Culum

85'

Stéphano Carrillo

85'

Finn Stam

86'

N. Tjoe a On← M. El Allouchi

90+5'

Nathan Tjoe-A-On

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DordrechtWillem

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots10

1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.78

4Corners7

14Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target7

5Off Target1

1Blocked3

6Inside Box8

2Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

431Total Passes445

355Accurate Passes351

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls7

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1