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Willem II U21 vs PEC Zwolle U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Willem II U21
Willem II U21
FT
0 – 0
PEC Zwolle U21
PEC Zwolle U21
3/19/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 2Sportpark Prinsenhoeve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Willem II U2141%
×Draw24%
PEC Zwolle U2135%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II U21
1.59
PEC Zwolle U21
1.44

Willem II U21 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 39 away

creates per match

Willem II U21
1.56
PEC Zwolle U21
1.13

allows per match

Willem II U21
1.76
PEC Zwolle U21
1.62

finishing

Willem II U21+0.00on par
PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II U21 ↓

PEC Zwolle U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Willem II U21 or draw
65%
Willem II U21 or PEC Zwolle U21
76%
Draw or PEC Zwolle U21
59%

Winning margin

Willem II U21 wins by 2+
21%
PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Willem II U21 1+ goals
80%
Willem II U21 2+ goals
47%
Willem II U21 3+ goals
21%
PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals
76%
PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals
42%
PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Willem II U21 (draw refunded)
54%
PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II U21 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

PEC Zwolle U21 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II U21 attack 1.56 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.59

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 1.13 + Willem II U21 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Willem II U21 scores more
41%
level
24%
PEC Zwolle U21 scores more
35%

Willem II U21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Willem II U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Willem II U21 vs PEC Zwolle U21

Willem II U21 and PEC Zwolle U21 drew 0-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Prinsenhoeve in Tilburg.