Willem II U21 1–1 NAC U21: Result & Stats

Willem II U21

FT

1 – 1

NAC U21

4/9/2022

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 4Sportpark Prinsenhoeve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Willem II U2144%

×Draw22%

NAC U2134%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Willem II U21Expected goals in this matchNAC U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.73

Willem II U21

1.99

NAC U21

1.73

Willem II U21 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.56

creates per match

1.69

1.76

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Willem II U21

1.56

NAC U21

1.69

allows per match

Willem II U21

1.76

NAC U21

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Willem II U21+0.00on par

NAC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II U21 ↓

NAC U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Willem II U21 or draw

66%

Willem II U21 or NAC U21

78%

Draw or NAC U21

56%

Winning margin

Willem II U21 wins by 2+

25%

NAC U21 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Willem II U21 1+ goals

86%

Willem II U21 2+ goals

59%

Willem II U21 3+ goals

32%

NAC U21 1+ goals

82%

NAC U21 2+ goals

52%

NAC U21 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Willem II U21 (draw refunded)

56%

NAC U21 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II U21 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

NAC U21 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II U21 attack 1.56 + NAC U21 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.99

NAC U21 attack 1.69 + Willem II U21 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Willem II U21 scores more

44%

level

22%

NAC U21 scores more

34%

Willem II U21 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Willem II U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff