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Wiliete vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2019

Wiliete
Wiliete
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
5/25/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 30Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Wiliete46%
×Draw28%
Sagrada Esperança26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiliete
1.31
Sagrada Esperança
0.92

Wiliete creates 42% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 112 away

creates per match

Wiliete
1.64
Sagrada Esperança
0.90

allows per match

Wiliete
0.94
Sagrada Esperança
0.99

finishing

Wiliete+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiliete ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wiliete or draw
74%
Wiliete or Sagrada Esperança
72%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
54%

Winning margin

Wiliete wins by 2+
21%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wiliete 1+ goals
73%
Wiliete 2+ goals
38%
Wiliete 3+ goals
14%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
60%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
23%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wiliete (draw refunded)
63%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiliete at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.99 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiliete attack 1.64 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.90 + Wiliete defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wiliete scores more
46%
level
28%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
26%

Wiliete at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiliete vs Sagrada Esperança

Sagrada Esperança beat Wiliete 2-1 in Girabola on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.