Wiliete 4–1 Isaac de Benguela: Result & Stats

Wiliete

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Isaac de Benguela

9/29/2024

Girabola · Round 3Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Wiliete57%

×Draw24%

Isaac de Benguela19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WilieteExpected goals in this matchIsaac de Benguela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.86

Wiliete

1.71

Isaac de Benguela

0.86

Wiliete creates 99% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 29 away

1.64

creates per match

0.79

0.94

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Wiliete

1.64

Isaac de Benguela

0.79

allows per match

Wiliete

0.94

Isaac de Benguela

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiliete+0.00on par

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiliete ↓

Isaac de Benguela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wiliete or draw

81%

Wiliete or Isaac de Benguela

76%

Draw or Isaac de Benguela

43%

Winning margin

Wiliete wins by 2+

32%

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wiliete 1+ goals

82%

Wiliete 2+ goals

51%

Wiliete 3+ goals

24%

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals

58%

Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals

21%

Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Wiliete (draw refunded)

75%

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiliete at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Isaac de Benguela away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiliete attack 1.64 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.79 + Wiliete defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wiliete scores more

57%

level

24%

Isaac de Benguela scores more

19%

Wiliete at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff