Wiliete 1–2 Interclube: Result & Stats | Girabola

Wiliete

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Interclube

4/3/2024

Girabola · Round 17Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Wiliete46%

×Draw28%

Interclube26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WilieteExpected goals in this matchInterclube

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.91

Wiliete

1.31

Interclube

0.91

Wiliete creates 44% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 107 away

1.64

creates per match

0.88

0.94

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Wiliete

1.64

Interclube

0.88

allows per match

Wiliete

0.94

Interclube

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiliete+0.00on par

Interclube+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiliete ↓

Interclube →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Wiliete or draw

74%

Wiliete or Interclube

72%

Draw or Interclube

54%

Winning margin

Wiliete wins by 2+

21%

Interclube wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wiliete 1+ goals

73%

Wiliete 2+ goals

38%

Wiliete 3+ goals

14%

Interclube 1+ goals

60%

Interclube 2+ goals

23%

Interclube 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Wiliete (draw refunded)

64%

Interclube (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiliete at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Interclube away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.98 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiliete attack 1.64 + Interclube defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.31

Interclube attack 0.88 + Wiliete defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wiliete scores more

46%

level

28%

Interclube scores more

26%

Wiliete at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff