Wiliete 3–0 Desportivo Huíla: Result & Stats

Wiliete

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Desportivo Huíla

3/22/2026

Girabola · Round 19Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Wiliete50%

×Draw27%

Desportivo Huíla23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WilieteExpected goals in this matchDesportivo Huíla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.85

Wiliete

1.42

Desportivo Huíla

0.85

Wiliete creates 67% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

1.64

creates per match

0.76

0.94

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Wiliete

1.64

Desportivo Huíla

0.76

allows per match

Wiliete

0.94

Desportivo Huíla

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiliete+0.00on par

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiliete ↓

Desportivo Huíla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wiliete or draw

77%

Wiliete or Desportivo Huíla

73%

Draw or Desportivo Huíla

50%

Winning margin

Wiliete wins by 2+

25%

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wiliete 1+ goals

76%

Wiliete 2+ goals

41%

Wiliete 3+ goals

17%

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals

57%

Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals

21%

Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Wiliete (draw refunded)

69%

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiliete at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiliete attack 1.64 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Wiliete defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wiliete scores more

50%

level

27%

Desportivo Huíla scores more

23%

Wiliete at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff