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Wiliete vs CD Lunda-Sul — Girabola 2019

Wiliete
Wiliete
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Lunda-Sul
CD Lunda-Sul
12/1/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 12Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Wiliete48%
×Draw28%
CD Lunda-Sul24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiliete
1.38
CD Lunda-Sul
0.89

Wiliete creates 55% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 75 away

creates per match

Wiliete
1.64
CD Lunda-Sul
0.83

allows per match

Wiliete
0.94
CD Lunda-Sul
1.13

finishing

Wiliete+0.00on par
CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiliete ↓

CD Lunda-Sul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wiliete or draw
76%
Wiliete or CD Lunda-Sul
72%
Draw or CD Lunda-Sul
52%

Winning margin

Wiliete wins by 2+
23%
CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wiliete 1+ goals
75%
Wiliete 2+ goals
40%
Wiliete 3+ goals
16%
CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals
59%
CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals
22%
CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wiliete (draw refunded)
67%
CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiliete at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

CD Lunda-Sul away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiliete attack 1.64 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.83 + Wiliete defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wiliete scores more
48%
level
28%
CD Lunda-Sul scores more
24%

Wiliete at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiliete vs CD Lunda-Sul

Wiliete beat CD Lunda-Sul 2-0 in Girabola on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.