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Wiliete vs Carmona — Girabola 2019

Wiliete
Wiliete
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Carmona
Carmona
9/15/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 1Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wiliete70%
×Draw19%
Carmona10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiliete
2.06
Carmona
0.64

Wiliete creates 222% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wiliete
1.64
Carmona
0.33

allows per match

Wiliete
0.94
Carmona
2.47

finishing

Wiliete+0.00on par
Carmona+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiliete ↓

Carmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wiliete or draw
90%
Wiliete or Carmona
81%
Draw or Carmona
30%

Winning margin

Wiliete wins by 2+
45%
Carmona wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Wiliete 1+ goals
87%
Wiliete 2+ goals
61%
Wiliete 3+ goals
34%
Carmona 1+ goals
47%
Carmona 2+ goals
14%
Carmona 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wiliete (draw refunded)
87%
Carmona (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiliete at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Carmona away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiliete attack 1.64 + Carmona defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.06

Carmona attack 0.33 + Wiliete defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Wiliete scores more
70%
level
19%
Carmona scores more
10%

Wiliete at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiliete vs Carmona

Wiliete beat Carmona 5-0 in Girabola on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.