Wildon 1–1 Union RB Weinland Gamlit: Result & Stats

Wildon

FT

1 – 1

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

8/26/2023

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 4Sportplatz Wildon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Wildon47%

×Draw22%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WildonExpected goals in this matchUnion RB Weinland Gamlit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.48

Wildon

1.88

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

1.48

Wildon creates 27% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 86 away

1.76

creates per match

1.57

1.39

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Wildon

1.76

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

1.57

allows per match

Wildon

1.39

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wildon+0.00on par

Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wildon ↓

Union RB Weinland Gamlit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wildon or draw

69%

Wildon or Union RB Weinland Gamlit

78%

Draw or Union RB Weinland Gamlit

53%

Winning margin

Wildon wins by 2+

26%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wildon 1+ goals

85%

Wildon 2+ goals

56%

Wildon 3+ goals

29%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals

77%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals

43%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Wildon (draw refunded)

61%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wildon at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.39 · 72 matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wildon attack 1.76 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.57 + Wildon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wildon scores more

47%

level

22%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more

31%

Wildon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wildon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff