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Wildon vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Wildon
Wildon
CANC
14:00
TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
4/5/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 16Sportplatz Wildon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Wildon49%
×Draw22%
TuS Heiligenkreuz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wildon
1.93
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.44

Wildon creates 34% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 72 away

creates per match

Wildon
1.76
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.49

allows per match

Wildon
1.39
TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.10

finishing

Wildon+0.00on par
TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wildon ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Wildon or draw
71%
Wildon or TuS Heiligenkreuz
78%
Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz
51%

Winning margin

Wildon wins by 2+
28%
TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wildon 1+ goals
85%
Wildon 2+ goals
57%
Wildon 3+ goals
30%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
76%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
42%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wildon (draw refunded)
63%
TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wildon at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.39 · 72 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wildon attack 1.76 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.93

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Wildon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wildon scores more
49%
level
22%
TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
29%

Wildon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wildon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wildon vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Match Preview

Wildon face TuS Heiligenkreuz on April 5, 2021 in this Landesliga - Steiermark fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wildon host TuS Heiligenkreuz at Sportplatz Wildon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.